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The September Deterrent

There is no question that Hezbollah is a well-armed and funded proxy of Iran. General Yahya Rahim Safavi, military adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued warnings to Israel last week. He cautioned that Hezbollah and its allies in the region have some 80,000 rockets aimed at Tel Aviv and Haifa and are ready to retaliate should Israel exhibit further aggression. Any all-out attack, however, will likely not come until after the mid-September vote on the pending nuclear pact between Iran and the UN P5+1 group.

Israeli officials are certain Iran was the motivating force behind rocket attacks launched last week from Syria believed to have been coordinated by an Iranian military chief. In the skirmish Hezbollah leveled an assault against an Israeli caravan near the Shebaa Farms. Two Israeli soldiers were killed and several other members of the IDF convoy were injured. Hezbollah leaders immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/the-israel-hezbollah-sideshow-1215

Hezbollah fighters, in readiness for further Israeli attacks have surreptitiously moved their weapons and military materiel into the villages of Southern Lebanon. The fear is that Israel will take advantage of the lull while waiting for the U.S. Congressional vote. Hezbollah’s move would, however, enable them to use Lebanese civilians as human deterrents. Iran’s proxies have no compunction when it comes to hiding behind women and children in order gain a worldwide media advantage. Israel’s repeated complaints to the UN regarding Hezbollah’s flagrant violation of Resolution 1701 which bans the terrorist group from an arms build-up following the 2006 Lebanon war, have fallen on deaf ears.

While Iran’s leaders may not overtly be planning an attack on Israel, it could be making covert plans for an assault through Hezbollah and Hamas. The question then arises: Is Tehran so sure of a Congressional rubber stamp of the Obama administration’s pact that it is now making forays into Israel through its proxies?

Al-Rai, a newspaper in Kuwait, published an article last week expressing the opinion that “Israel wants to mobilize the American Jewish side, before the vote in Congress on the nuclear deal.”  http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4693422,00.html. Members of the Netanyahu government insist that once the pact has been approved by U.S. senators and representatives, there will be no motivation for Iran not to unleash an all-out attack against Israel. This is doubly possible given the wordage in the agreement—a clause that caused Senator Marco Rubio to press John Kerry for answers. The paragraph stipulates that the U.S. will be obligated to provide “cooperation through training or workshops to strengthen Iran’s ability to protect against or respond to nuclear security threats, including sabotage.” http://theintelligencer.net/page/content.detail/id/639827/Helping-Iran-Build-the-Bomb.html?nav=5248

Former Israeli Ambassador to the United States, Dore Gold, said in an interview with Politico Magazine, “Fundamentally, there’s something untenable about Iran claiming that it is in a negotiating process with the West while it reserves the right to wage war against America’s allies in the Middle East.” http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/israel-says-iran-is-sponsoring-rocket-attacks-121685.html.

All that Ayatollah Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guard in Iran and his proxies in the Middle East have to do it wait patiently until after September 16. Then the United States will have committed to either supporting Iran in an attack against Israel, or at the least turning a blind eye. The leaders of the nation that has for decades threatened to “wipe Israel off the map” can demand the support, not only of China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Germany, but of the United States as well.

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Dr. Michael Evans is a #1 New York Times bestselling author. His latest book, Friends of Zion: John Henry Patterson and Charles Orde Wingate, is available at www.Timeworthybooks.com.

 

 

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